California Weather: Sunny Skies Ahead, Warming Trend for Lunar New Year

San Francisco, CA - Residents across California can anticipate a significant shift towards clearer skies and warmer temperatures starting tomorrow, offering a welcome respite from recent conditions and setting the stage for a pleasant Lunar New Year celebration. The forecast indicates a robust period of sunshine and mild weather, with a notable warming trend expected to persist through the lead-up to the Lunar New Year's Eve.

Current Conditions and Immediate Outlook

As of Thursday, February 12, 2026, observations from early morning revealed scattered clouds over the eastern parts of the state, with most precipitation echoes located offshore. Fortunately, this has translated to dry conditions statewide. Yesterday, February 11th, temperatures ranged from a cooler 22.3°C (72.1°F) in Northern California (New Taipei City's Sanxia District) to a warm 30.0°C (86.0°F) in the South (Pingtung County's Neipu Township), with Central California (Chiayi County's Zhuqi Township) hitting 28.2°C (82.8°F) and Eastern California (Taitung City) reaching 27.5°C (81.5°F).

This morning, the lowest recorded ground-level temperatures were around 9.7°C (49.5°F) in Chiayi and 9.9°C (49.8°F) in Tainan. Across different regions, morning lows generally hovered between 10°C and 13°C (50°F to 55°F), with Northern areas like New Taipei's Shimen District at 12.2°C (54.0°F), Central Chiayi's Zhuqi Township at 10.0°C (50.0°F), Southern Tainan's Nanhsi District at 10.1°C (50.2°F), and Eastern Taitung's Donghe Township at 12.9°C (55.2°F).

Tomorrow Onward: A Sunny and Warming Spell

The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) model indicates a significant improvement across California starting today, February 12th. Northern regions will experience mostly cloudy to partly sunny conditions, while Central and Southern areas will see a mix of sunny and cloudy skies. Eastern parts may still encounter isolated, brief showers, but the probability is expected to decrease throughout the day. Daytime temperatures are set to rise, leading to considerable diurnal temperature variations.

Regional Temperature Forecast for Today (February 12th):

• Northern California: 12°C to 23°C (54°F to 73°F)
• Central California: 10°C to 28°C (50°F to 82°F)
• Southern California: 10°C to 29°C (50°F to 84°F)
• Eastern California: 13°C to 26°C (55°F to 79°F)

Leading Up to Lunar New Year: "Xiao Nian Ya" and Beyond

The outlook for the period from tomorrow, February 13th, through "Xiao Nian Ya" (the second-to-last day of the Lunar year), February 15th, is overwhelmingly positive. Weather models predict clear and stable conditions statewide, with temperatures climbing to near 30°C (86°F) in many areas. This warm, spring-like weather is ideal for pre-holiday cleaning and preparations. However, residents should be mindful of significant day-night temperature swings due to radiative cooling. Coastal regions, along with western and western offshore islands, are particularly susceptible to morning fog, necessitating caution for commuters.

Lunar New Year's Eve and First Few Days

A change in weather is anticipated for Lunar New Year's Eve, February 16th. Starting in the afternoon, a northeast monsoon is expected to move south, bringing localized, brief showers to Northern and Eastern California. Northern regions will experience a noticeable cooling trend. Other areas are forecast to remain mostly sunny with some cloud cover, with minimal impact from this shift.

The first and second days of the Lunar New Year, February 17th and 18th, will continue to be influenced by the northeast monsoon. Northern and Eastern California may see chances of scattered showers, with cooler temperatures prevailing in the north. Central and Southern California are expected to enjoy mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies with minor effects.

Outlook for "Chu San" (Third Day of Lunar New Year) and Beyond:

By "Chu San" (February 19th), the monsoon is predicted to weaken, leading to warmer temperatures. Northern California should transition to mostly cloudy skies, while Central and Southern regions will be predominantly sunny. Eastern areas might still see occasional brief showers.

For "Chu Si" and "Chu Wu" (February 20th and 21st), a shift to easterly winds is expected. This will bring comfortable daytime temperatures with cool mornings and evenings, characterized by significant diurnal temperature ranges. Most of the state will experience sunny to partly cloudy conditions, with the eastern regions having a slight chance of isolated rainfall.

Weather Model Discrepancies and Future Watch

It is important to note that weather model simulations beyond "Chu San" are showing inconsistencies between different international forecasting agencies. Therefore, continuous monitoring of the weather situation is advised for the most accurate and up-to-date information as the Lunar New Year period progresses.

Residents are encouraged to stay informed about the latest forecasts, especially regarding the potential for morning fog and the expected temperature fluctuations. This period of stable, warm weather presents a wonderful opportunity to enjoy the festivities and outdoor activities across the Golden State.