Balochistan Attacks Jeopardize Pakistan's Deals with China, Trump

In a dramatic display during a high-stakes meeting in the Oval Office last September, Pakistan's army chief, Field Marshal Asim Munir, unveiled a briefcase filled with shimmering mineral samples to U.S. President Donald Trump. Standing beside Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, Munir symbolized Pakistan's eagerness to partner with the U.S. on its vast untapped resources. This gesture was more than ceremonial—it underscored Islamabad's strategic pivot to attract American investment in critical minerals like copper, gold, and rare earth elements, primarily located in the volatile province of Balochistan.

However, just months later, a wave of coordinated attacks has cast a long shadow over these ambitions. On January 31, 2026, Baloch separatists launched assaults across at least 12 locations in Balochistan, killing 31 civilians and 17 security personnel. The Pakistani military responded decisively, neutralizing 145 fighters in the ensuing clashes. The violence, claimed by the Baloch Liberation Army (BLA) as part of their "Herof 2.0" operation, serves as a stark reminder of the province's instability and the risks it poses to both domestic stability and international partnerships.

The Heart of Pakistan's Economic Promises

Balochistan, Pakistan's largest province by land area but its most impoverished, is a treasure trove of natural wealth. It boasts significant reserves of oil, coal, gold, copper, and natural gas, which could fuel the nation's economic revival. Yet, this resource-rich region, home to about 15 million of Pakistan's 240 million people, has long been a flashpoint for separatist grievances. Locals accuse the federal government of exploiting these assets without equitable benefits, fueling a decades-old insurgency.

Pakistan's overtures to global powers are deeply intertwined with Balochistan. The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), a flagship of Beijing's Belt and Road Initiative, channels billions into infrastructure and energy projects snaking through the province. These investments, estimated at over $60 billion, are vital for China's access to the Arabian Sea and Gwadar Port. Any disruption here could unravel Islamabad's closest alliance.

Similarly, the U.S. deal, signed in late 2025, positions Pakistan as a key supplier of critical minerals amid global supply chain shifts away from China. Trump's administration views this as a strategic win, reducing dependence on adversarial sources. But the recent attacks underscore the fragility of these pacts. Analysts warn that escalating violence could deter investors, exacerbate Pakistan's debt crisis, and hinder its fragile economic recovery post-IMF bailout.

Details of the Coordinated Assaults

The BLA, a proscribed terrorist group seeking Baloch independence, executed the attacks with precision, targeting banks, security outposts, and civilian areas on the outskirts of Quetta, the provincial capital. A video statement from BLA leader Bashir Zeb described the operation as retaliation against perceived exploitation and military overreach. The group has a history of high-profile actions, including a deadly train hijack in 2025 that drew international condemnation.

Pakistani forces mounted a robust counteroffensive, with the military claiming to have dismantled BLA hideouts and seized weapons caches. Interior Minister Mohsin Naqvi swiftly pointed fingers at neighboring India, alleging state sponsorship without providing evidence. "These were not normal terrorists. India is behind these attacks," he declared, echoing longstanding accusations of Indian interference in Baloch affairs.

India dismissed the claims as "frivolous," with spokesperson Randhir Jaiswal urging Pakistan to address its internal failures. "Focus on the long-standing demands of its people in the region," he stated, highlighting the perennial blame game that complicates South Asian diplomacy.

Roots of the Baloch Unrest

The insurgency in Balochistan traces back to 1948, when the princely state was annexed by Pakistan shortly after partition from India. What followed was a cycle of uprisings, marked by demands for autonomy, resource rights, and an end to alleged human rights abuses by security forces. The 1970s and 2000s saw major flare-ups, often suppressed through military means but never fully resolved.

Today, the province's poverty rate exceeds 70%, with limited access to education, healthcare, and infrastructure despite its contributions to national revenue. Separatist groups like the BLA exploit these disparities, portraying the central government as an occupier. Experts argue that economic marginalization, coupled with heavy-handed tactics, perpetuates the conflict. "The army alone can't neutralize grievances," notes a recent Al Jazeera analysis, emphasizing the need for political dialogue and development initiatives.

Baloch nationalists also resent foreign involvement, viewing CPEC projects as a new form of colonization that displaces locals and benefits outsiders. Incidents of attacks on Chinese workers and convoys have already strained Islamabad-Beijing ties, prompting enhanced security measures.

Geopolitical Ripples for the U.S. and China

For the Trump administration, Balochistan's instability complicates its Indo-Pacific strategy. While eager for mineral access to bolster U.S. tech and defense sectors, Washington must balance this with concerns over Pakistan's nuclear arsenal and ties to militant groups. A destabilized Balochistan could invite broader chaos, potentially drawing in Afghanistan's Taliban or Iranian influences.

China, facing its own security challenges in Xinjiang, is doubling down on CPEC protections, including joint military patrols. Yet, the attacks signal that separatists are undeterred, targeting symbols of economic integration. If violence persists, Beijing may reconsider its exposure, impacting Pakistan's $30 billion external debt repayments.

International observers, including the UN, have called for inclusive solutions. Human rights groups document enforced disappearances and extrajudicial killings, urging reforms to build trust. Pakistan's government has promised provincial empowerment through the 18th Amendment, but implementation lags.

Looking Ahead: Challenges and Pathways

As Pakistan navigates this crisis, the Balochistan attacks are a wake-up call. Wooing Trump and China requires more than mineral samples—it demands addressing root causes like inequality and governance failures. Without genuine reconciliation, the province risks becoming a perpetual liability, undermining Islamabad's global ambitions.

Analysts predict that sustained military operations, while tactically effective, won't yield lasting peace. A multi-pronged approach—combining development aid, political negotiations, and international mediation—could pave the way. For now, the world watches as Balochistan's turmoil tests the resilience of Pakistan's strategic gambles.

In the U.S., where energy security is paramount, policymakers are monitoring closely. A stable Balochistan isn't just Pakistan's problem; it's a linchpin for global supply chains and regional security.